E.U. Referendum: Why is going ahead on a 4% victory a bad idea?

Before I get started on why the referendum should not ensure Britain’s exit from the European Union, let’s have a look at some approximate facts and figures.

OVERALL

-17,410,742 votes cast for leave (51.9%)

-16,141,241 votes cast for remain (48.1%)

-3.8% difference or 1,269,501 votes

-72.2% turn out/27.8% non-vote

BY COUNTRY (The Telegraph)

-Scotland: 62% voted to remain (24% difference)

-Northern Ireland: 55.7% voted to remain (11.4% difference)

-Wales: 52.5% voted to leave (5% difference)

-England: 53.2% voted to leave 46.8 (6.4% difference)

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

-18-24 year olds voted 75% for remain (YouGov Poll)

-25-49 year olds 56% for remain (YouGov Poll)

-50-64 year olds 44% for remain (YouGov Poll)

-65+ year olds 39% for remain (YouGov Poll)

-16-17 year olds in the UK (denied vote): 1.5 million

-If 16-17 year olds had been allowed to vote and followed the trend seen in 18-24 year olds, that could’ve been 1,125,000+ remain votes (the overall difference if this had happened, 144,500 approx. votes to leave). The younger electorate were among the least likely to turn up to vote, however, and more effort needs to be made to engage with the youth. This must happen in all future votes.

-Those with higher education were more likely to vote remain. Those with no formal qualifications were more likely to vote leave. (The Guardian – EU referendum: full results and analysis)

-UK Population 65,110,000 in 2015 (Office of National Statistics)

-Immigrants: 13.2% of the population (The Telegraph, 2016, Mapped: Which country has the most immigrants? That works out at about 8.6 million out of 65.1 million)

-28% of the population voted to leave the EU.

THE CASE FOR DELAYING BREXIT

Please remember this is my opinion, any comments which attack rather than discuss will be deleted (or, if they're particularly threatening, shared on twitter depending on my mood).

The main case for delaying Brexit is the 52-48% split. The country is clearly divided. Despite the language used by the BBC this referendum was far from decisive. Even in England, the leave stronghold, leave won by just 6.4%. In Wales it was a mere 5%. In the countries which voted to remain (Scotland and Ireland) the split was much higher, with a 24% difference in Scotland. Scotland is the only nation which can truly be considered ‘decisive’, with Ireland being ‘confident’ and England and Wales being ‘undecided’ overall. So the question becomes, is it truly democratic to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union based on the vote of the two predominantly undecided countries?

I am technically English (though I will never consider myself English, refer to my previous blog entry) but I agree with the Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP. It is not democratic to force every country of the United Kingdom out of the European Union based on such a narrow leave ‘victory’. There is no possible justification for taking the riskier course of action based on a half and half division. Especially based on the vote of the retired generation, rather than the workforce and the future workforce. A decade from now, many of the people who voted to leave won’t be here, but our youth, our children, will be living with the decision of a generation who are no longer personally concerned with job availability, a generation who’s personal considerations aren’t necessarily long term.

The ‘retired’ vote could have been counteracted almost entirely by the inclusion of 16-17 year olds in the referendum and more engagement with the younger member of the electorate. The inclusion of just a tiny fraction of the population, of those who will be affected by this decision for the greatest period of time, could have swayed the referendum to a 50-50 split. A so called ‘majority’ has been won because we refused to shift the voting age by a mere two years to include the very people who will be part of our workforce by the time we leave.

Is that democratic? Yes. Is it just and fair? Having the retured making decisions for those who as 16 and 17 is about as just as men making decisions for women because they know better. The generation least affected by the referendum have made a decision for everyone else. That is an example of democracy failing. The leave lead is not great enough to make breaking the status quo, and going ahead with something as momentous and potentially catastrophic as leaving the EU, justifiable. Not when the leave voters only make up 28% of the United Kingdom’s population.

Should the older generation have been allowed to vote? Yes, of course they should, that’s democracy. But perhaps those people who are allowed to drive and marry, who are right now being forced to make decisions about their future when choosing subjects to study, should have also been given a right to speak on this aspect of their future.

How should we move forward, based on the marginal victory and the difference of opinion between the retired, the workforce, and the youth? At the very least, the mere 4% ‘victory’ should be a case to delay Brexit and have a second referendum.

The justification for this? While leave supporters have claimed that a second referendum would be undemocratic and that the population has spoken, it seems quite clear that a certain portion of the population has spoken. Those who are our future, the workforce and the youth, are about to be ignored. The very people who will pay, through taxes, to fund the state pensions of the retired, are about to be dragged out of Europe against their will, based on a vote which the inclusion of our youth could have reversed. Two decided countries are about to be dragged out of the European Union by two undecided nations, a decision which could bring about the destruction of the United Kingdom.Not only that, but those most likely to vote out of the European Union are the same people who voted for us to remain in the European Communities in 1975. They chose to set us on the course which gave the following generations European Citizenship, which they've now decided to rip away on their second referendum on our membership. Is it just that 28% of the population can decide to rip away someones citizenship?

Some will undoubtedly claim that a call for a second referendum is a cry to keep going until remainers get the result they want. That’s simply not true. A call for a second referendum is a call not to do anything until we have a clear decision. There needs to be a decisive majority before we commit to anything, leaving or staying. Taking such a risk based on 28% of the population, a segment comprised of those who will be least affected, is reckless. It is both economically and socially reckless. Just look at other ballots where the results are close. Even union ballots to strike need greater majorities to go ahead, and this is a far bigger decision than whether or not someone strikes. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) unions need 40% of those eligible to vote to agree to go ahead. In the referendum, leave received votes from just 38% of the eligible electorate.

As for the risks we have taken... Already, as of a day after the referendum result was announced, “the credit ratings agency Moody’s have already downgraded the UK Government’s bond rating from stable to negative” (The Independent -  Brexit: Moody’s downgrades UK’s credit outlook). Obama has stated that he stands by his previous claim that the UK will go to the back of the queue with regard to trade negotiations. France wants to make an example of us. The EU has stated that we’ve lost all rights to special treatment and it is being reported that they ‘will not make it easy on us’. There are calls in both Scotland and Ireland for independence. Already, the fears of the remain voters are beginning to play out.

As for the claims of the leave campaigners? Already several have back tracked on their promises and claims. The nation is waking up to the realisation that this won’t stop immigration and that the NHS has not been saved. However, the leave voters don’t much mind because they promote a fanciful notion of sovereignty while waving their union flags (until they become St George’s crosses). Plus, they won’t be applying for jobs anyway, and they only need the NHS to last a little longer in the grand scheme of things.

On top of that, the Brexit vote has led to an increase in the reports of racial abuse and hate crime. Even discounting the economy, there are other serious implications for our population. The far right and the racists and fascists of the nation have taken Brexit as an endorsement of their views. We need to be showing support for unity and alliance, not division.

So what would I like to say to the world...

To the leavers now claiming ‘it was a democratic vote, it’s done, stop complaining and work together for the future,’ I say this:

We are a democracy. Where a significant portion of the population feel their futures are at risk they have every right to speak out and continue to speak out. No group should ever have silence forced upon them. We are divided. The leave ‘victory’ does not represent the majority of the population. It doesn't even represents half of thecelectorate. Not even half. In addition, it only represents 28% of the United Kingdom’s population. Stop gloating. Stop demanding that your workforce and your youth accept a decision they were vocally against. This is a democracy, and if half the population feel they are about to be ignored and have their futures undermined they have every right to speak, to ask the government to reconsider. A democratic referendum does not always lead to a just decision. Ballots prior to women been given the vote were democratic, that doesn’t mean they were fair on the entire populace.

If roles were reversed, leave would continue to campaign. Farage said prior to the referendum that he’d call for a second if remain won by a narrow margin. A narrow margin means a division, and that division will not be resolved by one side having their concerns and frustrations ignored. That will only breed further discontent and resentment. In this case it will breed resentment in the very people who keep the country moving, the workers, the youth, the future.

To the leaders of the European Union, I say:

Please do not judge us too harshly, no matter when or if article 50 is invoked, half of the British electorate didn’t want to leave. The people you trade with now, and who you will trade with in the future, wanted to be part of the European Union. Our workforce and our youth, the people you will work with in the future and who will lead us in the future, wanted to remain in the European Union. A vote made by just 28% of our populace has furthered the division in our own nation, so please look on us, those you will be negotiating with, with empathy.

We didn’t want this. We are the children who didn’t want their parents to divorce. We are the children who will bear the scars of their parents arguments. How you react now, when half of us didn’t want to leave, will define our relationship for generations. Don’t ostracise those who didn’t vote to ostracise themselves. Britain is not the 28% who voted to leave. We are much more than that, and we are as angry, as worried, and as disbelieving as you.

And finally, to those who wanted to remain in the EU, I have this to say:

Don’t allow your voices to be silenced. You are our workforce, our future, our upcoming leaders. Say how you feel. Write to your local MPs, to the government, to EU representatives. Petition. Campaign. Don’t sit down and accept that this cannot be rectified or that your voices are somehow less valid because of a 4% margin. Now, more than ever, we need you to be engaged. We need you to be seen, so be seen. Make yourself heard and do so peacefully, presenting arguments based on facts and with an aim to better our futures. Do so in a manner that promotes open discussion, in a manner which directly opposes the scaremongering and hatred which led our nation to this vote. Keep speaking. Keep talking. Make sure that the United Kingdom and Europe knows what the population of the future wants, rather than succumbing to the will of the generation of the past, to the disillusioned, and to the fanciful. Don’t accept a decision that was supported by the likes of Boris, Farage, Trump, and Putin. Speak up. Speak clearly. And don’t stop speaking.

Over and out.

Carmine Raven